The fall of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has sparked a wave of cautious celebration within the country and wild rejoicing among the Venezuelan diaspora in cities like Madrid, Buenos Aires, and Miami. Maduro's capture and arraignment before an American judge offer a glimmer of hope for a democratic transition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado. However, the situation is far from straightforward, as evidenced by the conflicting statements from President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
A Cautionary Tale of Geopolitics
Trump's stance on Venezuela aligns with a geopolitical strategy based on raw power and spheres of influence, reminiscent of the dynamics that led to global conflicts in the 20th century. This approach raises concerns about the potential for a new era of great power rivalry and the erosion of international norms. In this scenario, the U.S. seeks dominance over the Western Hemisphere, while Russia and China assert their influence in their respective regions. Trump's actions in Ukraine, where he has attempted to deliver the country into Vladimir Putin's arms, serve as a cautionary example of the dangers of such a strategy.
The Five-Dimensional Chess Myth
Trump's supporters often defend his actions by claiming he's playing a complex game of five-dimensional chess. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that this is a myth. Trump's lack of a coherent plan for Venezuela, and his tendency to make impulsive decisions, suggest that he is more likely to be eating the chess pieces than strategizing with them.
The Case for Regime Change
Maduro's removal from power is a welcome development, given his illegitimate rule and violation of numerous agreements, including a 2023 deal with the Biden administration. His regime, along with others in countries like Russia, Cuba, Iran, Belarus, and Uganda, has been responsible for decades of oppression, killing, and regional destabilization. In such cases, regime change is not a dirty word, but a necessary step towards restoring freedom and democracy. While the future of Venezuela remains uncertain, the fall of Maduro offers a glimmer of hope for a better tomorrow.
The Hypocrisy of Russia and China
Concerns have been raised about the potential for Russia and China to respond to the U.S. action in Venezuela with their own aggressive moves. However, it's important to recognize that these countries have little regard for international law and have consistently acted in ways that undermine global stability. Their official protests over the U.S. strike are nothing more than hypocritical posturing, as they have long supported Maduro precisely because of his disregard for international norms.
The Equivalency Fallacy
The situations in Venezuela, Ukraine, and Taiwan are not equivalent. Ukraine and Taiwan are sovereign democracies with freely elected leaders, while Maduro was a usurper who stole power through force and election fraud. Trump's initial pursuit of Maduro on narcotrafficking charges has now shifted to a focus on oil, but the principle of fighting authoritarianism remains valid. The world's strongest democracy has a vital role to play in standing up to dictatorships, as it did under Truman and Reagan, regardless of Trump's personal motivations.
The Role of Western Apathy
Western apathy and cowardice have emboldened dictators and terrorists, not the actions of the United States. It is the complacency of the West that has allowed Putin's mafia state to bombard Ukraine and the repressive regimes of Iran and Cuba to continue their aggressive policies. There can be no rule of law without consequences for those who break it. The United States, despite its flaws, has a responsibility to serve as a global leader in promoting democracy and freedom, especially when other nations fail to act.
A Disastrous Occupation or a Necessary Intervention?
The occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq were disastrous, but they should not be used as an excuse for the United States to retreat from its global responsibilities. Barack Obama's unilateral retrenchment and Trump's chaotic "America First" approach have both demonstrated the consequences of a lack of leadership. In this context, Trump's actions in Venezuela can be seen as those of a corrupt cop, taking occasional action while primarily looking out for his own interests. While the means may be questionable, the end result of removing Maduro is a step in the right direction.
The Future of Venezuela
María Corina Machado, the most popular politician in Venezuela, and her proxy, Edmundo González, won a decisive victory in the 2024 presidential election. However, Maduro ignored the results, jailed the opposition, and murdered protesters, clinging to power with the support of dictatorships in Cuba, Iran, and Russia. Machado's return to power offers a promising scenario for a democratic Venezuela, open to foreign investment and beneficial for both the Venezuelan people and the interests of the United States. Yet, Trump has chosen to discount Machado and the millions of votes her pro-democracy party received, favoring instead a profit-sharing deal with Maduro's former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.
A Pirate State?
Simply replacing one anti-American dictator with another who will profit from a deal with Trump and his partners is a recipe for disaster. The United States has strayed far from its ideals as a shining city on a hill, becoming a pirate state plundering its neighbors for the gain of a ruling clan. Venezuelans deserve the right to determine their own destiny, free from the influence of Trump's personal interests.
As the founder of the Renew Democracy Initiative, I had the honor of presenting Machado and González with our 2025 Heroes of Democracy award. Their struggle against the enemies of freedom, wherever they may be, is a reminder that democracy must be defended and supported, even in the face of challenging circumstances.
